GOALSTATISTICS FOOTBALL TRADING PLANS – INTRODUCTION

In this article we give you a football trading plan both pre-match and in play on the selected match to help you to find the best betting spots. As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in play, we always advise to watch the game live and adjust your trading plan accordingly. 

Please always take a look at the sample size, as certain spots occur more frequently, while others rarely. The higher the sample size, the more confidence we have in the given spot.

In our spreadsheets we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.

If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football trading plans, please click here.

PREMATCH

The 16th round of Premier League ends with a London Derby, as West Ham host Arsenal. The away side is winless since 27th of October, at the same time, the home team was able to win only one game in the same period.

If we take a look at the pre-match stats, only the over 3.5 option stands out. Games ended up more than 40% of the times with over 3.5 from both sides, but this option sits @2.10 at the moment – and keeps dropping.

1ST HALF ENTRY POINT

We couldn’t identify too much value pre-match, but there are a couple of potentially good entry points in the first half. If you like the over 3.5 we discussed earlier, it might be a good idea to wait for a better odds. The over % doesn’t drop too much if the scoreboard shows 0-0 in the 15th or in the 20th minute.

Another good opportunity could be to bet on halftime over 0.5 somewhere between the 20th and 25th minute. In this season, when the score was 0-0 at the 20th minute, 5/6 WHU and 5/7 Arsenal games went over 0.5 before halftime.

If you want to take more risk, you can wait until the 30th minute. If the game is still 0-0, there was at least one goal in 75% and 50% of the times – but the sample size is significantly lower here.

Halftime entry point

When we prepare a football trading script, we always try to focus more on the second half, but if you look at the table below, you can see that it’s quite difficult to find a good spot in the break. If West Ham would take the lead at HT, we couldn’t really expect Arsenal to win, as they were unable to score at least two goals in the past calendar year, when they were losing at halftime. On the other hand, with the home lead it might worth to take a look at the under x+1.5 goals. In this situation, there were at least two more goals in less than 30% of the times in WHU’s 7 home and Arsenal’s 9 away games in the last year.

It’s highly unlikely, but in case the score is 0-0 at halftime, you might want to enter on overs (x+1.5 or x+2.5) or look for an early goal. It looks like these teams are more likely to score a lot in the second half in this situation, but the sample size is quite low, so be careful.

The Halftime Non-Goalless Draw situation doesn’t really worth to mention, due to sample size issues. Lastly, in case Arsenal would lead at halftime, it would be quite difficult to enter the markets, as the team trends shows into opposite directions.

60TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT

Turning into the last 30 minutes, what really stands out is West Ham’s ability to score when they are losing. The home side managed to score 4/7 in the past calendar year and 2/3 this season in this situation, while Arsenal’s defense is slightly worse than the league average when they are leading.

Also worth a note that when WHU were losing at the 60th minute, there were at least two more goals in the last half an hour 5/7 and 3/3 times. In this stat category Arsenal is well below the average, so this entry highly depends on odds and how the game looks like.

75TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT

In the last 15 minutes we can spot two interesting stats. First of all, if the score is a draw, this is close to an awful spot to try lay the draw, especially from Arsenal’s side.

On the other hand, if Arsenal would lead at this point, we could expect a late goal. In these situation West Ham’s games seen at least one more goal in 83% of the times in the past year, while the Gunners are slightly above the average in this category, sitting at 60%.

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