GOALSTATISTICS FOOTBALL TRADING PLANS – INTRODUCTION
In this article we give you a football trading plan both prematch and in play on the selected match to help you to find the best betting spots. As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in play, we always advise to watch the game live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
Please always take a look at the sample size, as certain spots occur more frequently, while others rarely. The higher the sample size, the more confidence we have in the given spot.
In our spreadsheets we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football trading plans, please click here.
In the 22nd round of French Ligue 1 Nice will host Lyon on Sunday afternoon. The two sides had a meeting in the cup on Thursday, where Lyon managed to win 2-1. In this season teams performing under expectations, as the away side experiencing difficulties to reach the top four spots, while Nice sits in the bottom half of the league table.
Looking at the prematch stats, you can definitely expect goals in this match, as the sides perform well above the league average in pretty much every stat category. Probably this is why the odds on over 2.5 got pushed down to around 1.7 from the opening 2.10.
Goals can be traded in play, but if you want to place some pre-match bets, we would consider two options. First of all, the mentioned over 2.5 looks good, but after such a huge drop, not sure if there is too much value in it anymore. The other, sneakier option would be to bet on Nice to score in the first half, as they do so in 73% of their home games, while Lyon conceeded 73% of their away games – you can bet on this option at 2.25.
1ST HALF ENTRY POINT
As we expect goals in this game, we design our football trading plan accordingly. Ideally, the game goes 0-0 until the 15th or 20th-minute mark, and you can jump on the halftime over 0.5. This option both viable in the 15th and 20th minutes, but we recommend hitting the bet button earlier. You might get a bit lower odds, but if you look at the 15th Minute 0-0 stats, HT over 0.5 sits at 88% for Nice home games and at 83% for Lyon away matches. If you want to take a bigger risk, you can also consider HT over 1.5, as it is also backed by the stats.
If you watch the game and you still believe in fulltime over 2.5, you can also trade that market. If the score is 0-0 around the 15th minute, you will get slightly increased odds on this option, and teams perform well above the league average in this category too.
Halftime entry point
Hopefully by the end of the first half we will see a goal or two, and cashing in with the first half over bets. If it happens and Nice would take the lead, you can consider laying them, as in these situations they are scoring goals below the league average (40%), while Lyon scored at least one goal in 2 of those games where they played away and was losing at halftime.
At this point we would also highlight that you should definitely consider closing your over 2.5 if the HT score is 1-0, because these teams tends to score less than 2 goals in the second half.
If Lyon could take the lead in the first half, you could expect more goals (even three more is reasonable), but please note that the sample sizes are small in this situation.
60TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
The best case scenario around the 60th minute is a Lyon lead. If they do so, you can expect them to score again, but the best betting option is definitely a back on over x+0.5. You can’t expect too high odds on this, but both teams show tendencies that support this bet. If you’re not happy with the odds available, you can definitely wait, let’s see why.
75TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
The last piece in our football trading plan would be a bet on 1 more goal for the last 15 minutes if Lyon has the lead. They had 6 games this season in this situation, and 4 of them seen at least one more goal until the final whistle.
In this game, the best option is to wait and take a bet on halftime over 0.5 if opportunity comes. There are also good options in the second half, but because of low samples, we definitely recommend to watch the match to see if gameplay backs our ideas.