GOALSTATISTICS FOOTBALL TRADING PLANS – INTRODUCTION
In this article we give you a football trading plan both prematch and in play on the selected match to help you to find the best betting spots. As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in play, we always advise to watch the game live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
Please always take a look at the sample size, as certain spots occur more frequently, while others rarely. The higher the sample size, the more confidence we have in the given spot.
In our spreadsheets we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football trading plans, please click here.
The 26th round of Premier League starts with an interesting match between Wolverhampton and Leicester. In the last round both teams had a difficult match, Wolves earned a draw at the Old Trafford, while Leicester also played a draw at home against Chelsea.
Looking at the prematch statistics, we expect a goal from Leicester and also we expect a goal in the first half. What’s more interesting is that the odds on home team is decreasing. Why? Because they conceded the first goal in 75% of their home games, while Leicester scored the first in 77% of their away matches.
Other than this, nothing really stands out. You can try to back the away side prematch, or wait in-play. If they score, you can exit with profit. As the odds on Wolves keep decreasing, we would suggest to wait until the kickoff with the bet, or even better, wait until the 15th minute.
1ST HALF ENTRY POINT
As we said earlier, we build our football trading plan for a first half goal. If you look at the 15th, 20th and 30th minute stats you can see that there is an FHG more often than not. The only reason why you should be careful is something we discussed earlier. Wolves tend to concede first, and their HT scored % is quite low. In this situation, you’re expecting goal more from Leicester, so only enter if you like what you see from them.
Halftime entry point
At the halftime, you can enter two trades with confidence. If Wolves had the lead, you can start scalping the under x+1.5. In this situation teams had 3 and 4 matches, none of those produced a single goal before the 60th minute.
The other possible scenario is backing overs if Leicester has the lead. It’s quite a frequent game situation for both teams and we really like the any scored 46-60th min and 2+ goals in 2nd half tendencies. You have multiple options here, basically you can split your stakes into 60-40%, enter the markets at the 46th and then around the 52nd minute, expecting a goal by the 60th minute mark. If there is no goal, you can exit in the 60th minute and take the loss. If there is a goal, you can manage your risk based on scoreline and the overall picture of the match.
60TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
If you have entered the previously mentioned trade and there is a goal by the 60th minute mark, you definitely want to reduce your liability. Home lead is the only spot where another goal is likely. Looking at the away lead stats, both teams are outscoring their opponents, which means they are likely to score, but not too likely to concede. Obviously this makes this spot very awkward, so we advise to stay in the trade only if the game is open.
75TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
Stats from the 75th minute are also a bit controversial. It will be tough to find a trade you can enter with confidence, so we suggest to stay away if you couldn’t enter until this point.
WOLVERHAMPTON-LEICESTER BETTING SUMMARY
There are plenty of good situations in this match and it is difficult to judge which one is the best spot. We think you should definitely scalp under x+1.5 after halftime if Wolves has the lead. After that, the FHG O0.5 trade also look strong, but it really depends on what you can see in the first 15-20 minutes. We also consider the trade on over x+1.5 after a Leicester halftime lead, but you must be able to hit the button when you need to reduce liability.