GOALSTATISTICS FOOTBALL TRADING PLANS – INTRODUCTION
In this article we give you a football trading plan both prematch and in play on the selected match to help you to find the best betting spots. As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in play, we always advise to watch the game live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
Please always take a look at the sample size, as certain spots occur more frequently, while others rarely. The higher the sample size, the more confidence we have in the given spot.
In our spreadsheets we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football trading plans, please click here.
When we first took a look at Sunday’s games, we were sure we will write a football trading plan for this one. Later on we were a bit confused, but in the end here is the Montpellier-St. Etienne betting preview.
Home side is doing quite well, sitting at the 7th place on the table, while St. Etienne lost 4 of their last 5 Ligue 1 matches, and they are getting closer to the relegation zone. When you look at the prematch stats, you’ll understand why were we so sure that we must write about this one. It’s green all over the table, with strong numbers for a potential over 2.5 bet.
Then we took a look at the prices, and the over 2.5 is available for a shocking 2.50 with normal bookmakers. How is it possible that a match where the home team has an over 2.5 percentage of 58, and the away even better at 73 priced like this? We have checked the missing players, potential recent changes on the bench and H2H, and only the latter explains this odds. The sides couldn’t produce two goals in their last 4 League 1 match against each other.
Now, the question is what to do with this situation? To be honest, we want to take a look at the match and bet in play!
1ST HALF ENTRY POINT
The good thing is if you look at the team tendencies in the first half, you can see that the sides can produce over 2.5 games at a decent rate even if the score is 0-0 at the 15th (63% and 63%) or in the 20th (63% and 57%) minute mark. If you really like the odds on over 2.5, you can wait 15 minutes and if you like the game too, you can hit the bet button.
The other option is halftime over 0.5 bet. As the odds on overs is so high, you won’t need to wait too much in order to get a decent price on HT O0.5, which is a line that both teams delivered at a 75% rate this season when the score was 0-0 at the 15th minute.
All in all, you have two options if you believe in goals on this one: take the over 2.5 for full time or take the over 0.5 for the first half. We strongly recommend to go for the latter, mostly because the over 2.5 will need a first half goal in order to succeed most of the times.
Halftime entry point
If you have jumped on the over 2.5, most of the times you will need a goal from Montpellier. When they got the lead at home at the break, 57% of their matches see at least two more goals. On the other hand when St. Etienne was losing at HT, 80% of their away matches finished with over x+1.5.
In every other case we have a small sample size, so the best thing you can do is watch the game and make a decision based on that.
60TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
In this part of our football trading plan we can’t really identify potential value. At this point of the match St. Etienne is one of the best teams to use the lay the draw strategy when they are playing away (100% over x+0.5 rate in 6 away games). Unfortunately, Montpellier doesn’t really have sample size for this situation, so it is difficult to judge. All in all, if you watch the match and it is an open one, you can consider an LTD, but be careful. In this case, you also need to think about the meaning of 3 points: Montpellier wants to stick to the top 5, while St. Etienne is on an awful run, trying to avoid the relegation zone.
75TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
This match is not the best when you are looking for a late goal. LTD should be fine from St. Etienne’s side, but we will face with the problem we mentioned earlier: Montpellier has a low sample size in this specific situation.
MONTPELLIER-ST. ETIENNE BETTING SUMMARY
To summarize our football trading plan, it’s gonna be very-very interesting to watch the first 15 minutes. If the game is open enough, probably you can grab some value with an over 2.5 or a first half goal. If the teams will show the poor production that they used to do in their last 5 H2Hs, simply skip this one.