GOALSTATISTICS FOOTBALL TRADING PLANS – INTRODUCTION
In this article we give you a football trading plan both prematch and in play on the selected match to help you to find the best betting spots. As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in play, we always advise to watch the game live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
Please always take a look at the sample size, as certain spots occur more frequently, while others rarely. The higher the sample size, the more confidence we have in the given spot.
In our spreadsheets we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football trading plans, please click here.
This Tuesday is not the most appealing in terms of trading, but there are a couple of potential options. One of those is the clash between Monaco and Angers in a midweek round of French League 1. Let’s see our football trading plan!
If you look at the table, this is a typical 6 point derby, as the sides are separated by only 1 point on the table, in the 12th and 13th position. Monaco will play without Bakayoko and Martins who both picked up a red card in the last round during a 3-1 loss against Nimes. Angers also had tough time in their previous game, suffering a 4-1 home loss against Reims.
Looking at the pre-match stats, over 2.5 is the only bet that stands out, as 91% of Monaco’s home games went over the line this season, and also 60% of Angers away games have seen at least 3 goals. Currently the odds sits at 1.90 for this option which could represent some value, but… The truth is that Anger’s away games went over this season every single time when they lost (5), but only twice when they managed to secure at least one point.
All in all, with two key players missing from Monaco, we would rather take the wait & see approach, take a look at the game, as probably we can find better spots with better odds on the over in-play. Head to head is also a bit hectic, with a 0-0, 0-1, and a 0-4 and a 2-2.
1ST HALF ENTRY POINT
The very first thing that stands out here is the teams don’t produce too many goals in the first 15 minutes. On the other hand, the over 2.5 percentages are still high if the score is 0-0 around the 15th-20th minute. Monaco’s stats sits well above 80% in these situations, but Angers is also above the league average with 50% and 43%.
If you are confident that this game will go over 2.5, maybe this is the time when you want to bet.
Halftime entry point
Arriving at the halftime, our football trading plan says we should pray for a slight Monaco lead, otherwise it will be difficult to find a good spot.
Two things to note here: first of all, if Monaco has the lead at the break, there was at least two more goals in the second half in 80% of their home games. Angers away games also has seen at least 2 more goals 5 out of 5 times, when they were losing at this point.
The second thing is: we would like to highlight how bad could be a 0-0 at the break. Angers had 4 away games this season with 0-0 on the scoreboard at halftime, 3 of those ended with 0-0. Lay the draw in this game is definitely a bad idea!
60TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
Checking the data around the 60th minute, our trading plan remain the same. If the game is open, there are chances, we can chase goals if Monaco has the advantage. If you want to play it safe, go for over x+0.5, if you want to take higher risk, go for over x+1.5.
75TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
We can only repeat ourselves, but a Monaco lead around the 75th could scream for at least one more goal. Monaco had 6 home games in this situation, 4 of those brought at least one more score. On the other hand, Angers 4 out of 5 away matches of Angers produced a goal if they were losing at the 75th minute mark.
MONACO-ANGERS BETTING SUMMARY
To summarize our Monaco-Angers betting & trading preview, we can tell only one thing: look for a Monaco lead in the first half, and chase the goals. If it happens, make sure you plan your staking accordingly, as you might want to enter the markets at multiple points, which can increase your liability significantly.