GOALSTATISTICS FOOTBALL TRADING PLANS – INTRODUCTION
In this article we give you a football trading plan both prematch and in play on the selected match to help you to find the best betting spots. As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in play, we always advise to watch the game live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
Please always take a look at the sample size, as certain spots occur more frequently, while others rarely. The higher the sample size, the more confidence we have in the given spot.
In our spreadsheets we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
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The 28th round of League 1 will be concluded by a fairly interesting match between Lille and Lyon on Sunday evening. In today’s football trading plan we are looking into this one.
When you check the pre-match statistics, you can find a couple of interesting spots. The most obvious one is that both teams are performing above the league average, when it comes to over 2.5. Lille played 14 games this season at home, 57% of those went over this line. Lyon also had 14 games away from home, and 71% of those have seen at least 3 goals.
This spot is also backed by their head to head record. Four of the last five meetings between the sides finished with 2-2. On the other hand, there is a huge red flag in this one: Lille’s defense is amazing at home. They conceded only 10 goals in this season when played at home, therefore only 36% of these game ended with a BTS. We think most of the times you will need both teams to score in this one, to succeed with over 2.5.
The odds on over 2.5 keeps growing, probably this is one of the reason for that. All in all, we think it is a better idea to trade this one live, instead of placing any pre-match bet.
1ST HALF ENTRY POINT
In this part of our football trading plan we can see a lot of potential bets.
First of all, if you like the over 2.5 option, you can jump on it around the 20th minute if it’s still 0-0. The thing is, these teams are performing very well, above the league average. Thanks to the expected high starting price, this could be a low or lower risk / high reward trade. When you decide whether to enter or not, you’ll need to focus on Lyon. If they play well, creating opportunities, this will be a good entry point. If not, then simply skip.
Other than that, you can expect a first-half goal, as even it is 0-0 at the 20th minute, Lille’s home games have seen a goal by halftime in 78% of the time. Lyon’s away stats are even better with 86% percent.
The only red flag here is that Lille conceded only once out of 9 times. Therefore, if Lille will push for the lead, you can also think about the halftime home lead. The thing is that Lille scored 67% of the time at home in this situation, while Lyon conceded at least one goal by the halftime in 71% of the time.
Halftime entry point
When it comes to halftime, we can’t really see any good opportunities, at least based on stats. In some cases the sample size is simply way too low, in others the stats are opposing each other.
60TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
This match is could be a lay the draw candidate around the 60th minute. Both teams have an acceptable sample size in this situation. What’s even better, when Lille played at home and the score was a draw at the 60th minute, 3 out of 4 times we have seen at least one more goal by the end of the match. On the other side, Lyon had 5 away games in this situation and 4 of those went over x+0.5.
Our only concern with the lay the draw strategy here is the fact that the teams are producing goals in this situation fairly early, so your potential expected reward might be a little bit lower when an early goal comes.
75TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
There are a couple of good spots in this one even in the last 15 minutes.
First of all, if it’s a draw, the teams are still likely to score, but keep in mind that the sample size is fairly low here. On the other hand, if Lille has the lead at this point, a goal is highly unlikely. Because of this, you can easily scalp the under x+0.5 market.
LILLE-LYON FOOTBALL TRADING PLAN - SUMMARY
To summarize this trading plan, we want to highlight the importance of Lyon’s ability to score. If they are playing well, you can jump on goals, especially because the odds will be very high on pretty much all the considerable options in the first half. There are also strong LTD options in this one, and also you can scalp the under in the last 15 minutes if Lille has the lead.