GOALSTATISTICS FOOTBALL TRADING PLANS – INTRODUCTION
In this article we give you a football trading plan both prematch and in play on the selected match to help you to find the best betting spots. As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in play, we always advise to watch the game live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
Please always take a look at the sample size, as certain spots occur more frequently, while others rarely. The higher the sample size, the more confidence we have in the given spot.
In our spreadsheets we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football trading plans, please click here.
In the shadow of Champions League, there are 7 games in the Championship to be played. In our preview we will focus on the clash between out of form Hull City and rock bottom Barnsley. The last time Hull City managed to win a match was on the 4th of January, while Barnsley managed to win two in a row, including an away win at Craven Cottage.
When you look at the prematch stats, you can see that both teams performing well above the league average when it comes to over 2.5. The thing is the odds is so low on this outcome that we advise to wait and trade this match in play.
1ST HALF ENTRY POINT
There are a couple of potential entry points in the first half. If you really like the over 2.5 goals, you can wait 15-20 minutes. Even after 20 goalless minutes, both teams matches tend to go over 2.5 just above 50% of the time. By this time, if it’s still 0-0, you can expect good odds on this one.
As we always say, most of the time an over 2.5 needs a first-half goal. In this one, Hull’s stats are promising, but Barnsley’s are far away from ideal. The only thing we really like here is the fact that if it’s 0-0 in the 30th minute, 50% of Hull’s home games produced a goal by halftime. On the other hand, Barnsley had 10 games like this away from home, and 4 of them seen a goal before the break.
Halftime entry point
From our football trading plan’s point of view, we want a home lead by halftime. In this situation both teams averaging 2 goals in the second half. The high average results that 60% of Hull’s home games produced at least 2 more goals after the break when they had the lead. Barnsley’s stats are even better, they are at 67% in this metric.
The thing is, if Hull has the lead and you get good odds on over x+1.5, you can make the trade cheaper. First of all, if home team is up, an early goal is very likely in the 2nd half (by the 60th minute). Just look at the statistics and you’ll see 60% for Hull and 83% for Barnsley when it comes to goals in the first 15 minutes after the break.
60TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
If you jumped on the previous trade, you definitely want a goal by the 60th minute. It is because it is very unlikely that this match will see two goals in the last 30 minutes. As we said, you can make this trade cheap: enter at halftime, and if there is no goal by the 60th minute, you can take the red and exit.
Okay, but there are two situations that you might want to jump on at this point. First of all, if it’s a draw, you can go for another two goals, potentially at very high odds. Interestingly Hull City had 7 games in this situation, all of them produced at least one goal (LTD?), 71% of them produced at least 2 goals. Barnsley’s stats are also looking good in this one. Although only 60% of their away games have seen a goal, 40% produced at least two which is above the league average.
The other potential entry at the 60th minute is an away lead. The sample size is smaller here, but the numbers are still good. There is only one red flag here, which is the fact that both teams have been outscored in this situation. Hull City was trailing 5 times at home this season around the 60th minute and they are 1-4. Barnsley was winning 4 times away from home and they are 2-5 in this situation.
75TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
By the 75th minute most probably you’ll have a trade on this match. The thing is it is very difficult to find a good spot in the last 15 minute. Stats are not bad, but not convincing either, so we suggest to skip this entry point.
The thing is you have a lot of options in this one, and it is very likely that you can enter at some point in this game. If we have to rank our options, our number one option is a trade for two goals at halftime if Hull City has the lead. In this one, we want to trade out if there is no goal until the 60th minute.
The second best option is probably at the 60th minute with a draw. In this one, we prefer the low risk-high reward option and we would go for over x+1.5.
The first half options are not too bad, but there are certain question marks. If the game is action packed, you can still jump on those ones.