GOALSTATISTICS FOOTBALL TRADING PLANS – INTRODUCTION
In this article we give you a football trading plan both prematch and in play on the selected match to help you to find the best betting spots. As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in play, we always advise to watch the game live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
Please always take a look at the sample size, as certain spots occur more frequently, while others rarely. The higher the sample size, the more confidence we have in the given spot.
In our spreadsheets we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football trading plans, please click here.
The 25th round of Primera Division begins this Friday with a clash between Real Betis and Mallorca. Mallorca is the the worst team when you look at the away table, this is something we can utilize in our trading strategy for this game.
Okay, so Mallorca had 11 away matches in the season, managed to collect only one point, while they conceded 100% of the times. On the other hand, Betis always scored at home. Our main worry is that Betis often found themselves in awkward situation, as they conceded the first goal 67% of the times at home. This is something you’ll need to keep in mind.
Overall, if you look at the prematch stats, it’s green across the table, which means you can expect goals. If you really believe in over here, the odds is around 1.75 currently. Now, the thing is these teams tend to produce early goals. In the first 15 minutes, Betis is 4-4 this season in 12 matches. Mallorca had 11 away games, and they are 1-5 for the same period. If you want, you can enter early and trade out after 15 minutes with an early goal, but based on stats, you can expect goal almost only from Betis, which makes this a really-really tricky spot.
1ST HALF ENTRY POINT
If you don’t like the idea of jumping on over early, you can definitely wait. Even if it’s 0-0 around the 30th minute mark, 4 out of 5 games went over 2.5 at home for Betis. On the other hand, 43% of Mallorca’s 7 away matches have seen at least 3 goals if the score was 0-0 at the 30th minute.
Most of the time we say in order to succeed with your over 2.5 entries, you need a first-half goal. This match could be an exception. Even if it’s 0-0 at halftime, there is a good chance for over 2.5, we will discuss this in the next part.
Worth to mention that teams are performing above the league average when it comes to FHGs, when the score is 0-0 in the 20th or the 30th minute. But again, at this point, trading FT overs might be a better idea.
Overall, first half is quite tricky, as most of the times you can expect the goal from Betis. Therefore, it is not a bad idea to follow the first half 1×2 market as well. If it’s 0-0 and Betis have enough dangerous attacks, you can back them to win the first half. Also, we mentioned Betis conceded the first goal quite often. In the unlikely scenario of Mallorca scoring early, you can lay them for the first half. Just look at the stats, Betis already had 4 matches at home, where the score was a non-goalless draw at halftime (e.g. 1-1).
Halftime entry point
As mentioned in our football trading plan earlier, stats are quite promising if the score is 0-0 at halftime.
Betis had 3 home games in this situation, all of them went over 2.5. Mallorca had 4 0-0s at halftime in their away matches, 2 of them have seen at least 3 goals. What makes this entry point very strong is the fact that matches played in this situation produced early second half goals for both teams (67% and 75%). It means that if you want, you can enter at this point and exit at the 60th if it is still 0-0.
If you do so, we would suggest to split your stakes. Place 60% of your total stake at the break and then the rest around the 52nd minute.
60TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
It is quite difficult to find value at this spot, but maybe you want to lay the draw here. As we discussed in our article yesterday, the Primera Division is somewhat undervalued for LTD. Now, Betis had 4 games at home this season with a draw at the 60th minute and all of them produced at least one more goal. The weak spot of this trade is Mallorca, which has very little sample size (although it sits at 100% success rate).
75TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
Expecting a late goal in this one is somewhat brave. A late LTD is still in contention, other than that it is quite difficult to tell what situation could produce a goal.
BETIS-MALLORCA BETTING SUMMARY
If you read this trading preview, you already know that this will be a tricky one. There are many different ways you can trade this one, so the best advice is to stay patient and look for low risk high reward spots. There should be a few.