GOALSTATISTICS FOOTBALL TRADING PLANS – INTRODUCTION
In this article we give you a football trading plan both prematch and in play on the selected match to help you to find the best betting spots. As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in play, we always advise to watch the game live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
Please always take a look at the sample size, as certain spots occur more frequently, while others rarely. The higher the sample size, the more confidence we have in the given spot.
In our spreadsheets we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football trading plans, please click here.
From a football trading perspective, Augsburg-Freiburg is one of the most interesting games in the 22nd round of Bundesliga. The sides are not in the best form, as Augsburg won only one, while Freiburg won only two games from their last five.
Looking at the prematch stats, there are a few that stands out. We really like the 1st goal scored / conceded tendencies from home sides perspective, which also comes with high first half scored / conceded percentage. The other metric that caught our eyes, is the shockingly high halftime over 0.5 (90 and 91%) at both sides. Not only that, but these teams tend to go over the 1.5 line by the halftime.
All in all, if you want to place a bet before the kickoff, there are plenty of good ones, and they are also backed by H2H. The last 5 matches against each other produced 21 goals.
1ST HALF ENTRY POINT
We mentioned in the previous section that we really-really like the FHG Over 0.5 option in this one. Our advice is to wait something like 20 minutes, and if the score is still 0-0, hit the bet button. Even after 20 goalless minutes, these teams are capable to produce goals: Augsubrg had 7 matches this season in this situation, 86% went over 0.5 before the halftime. On the other hand, Freiburg had 5 games away with 0-0 at the 20th minute, 80% went over.
The other option at this point is an over 2.5, but don’t forget: in order to succeed with that bet, most of the times you’ll need a goal by the halftime.
Halftime entry point
Looking at the halftime stats, we have only one trading idea to share. Interestingly, the sides had a few games where the score at halftime was a non-goalless draw (e.g. 1-1), and a very high percentage of these games have seen a score by the 60th minute. All in all, in this situation you can split your stake. Bet on over x+1.5 with 60% of your stake just before the 2nd half starts, then place the rest at around the 52nd minute. By doing so, if there is no goal by the 60th minute, you can trade out for a red about 30% of your total stake.
60TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
At the 60th minute we can’t really recommend to enter the markets, as the team trends are quite opposing each other. If you have the entry point we mentioned earlier at the halftime section, you are definitely looking for an Augsburg lead. If the home side is up, you can let your trade run, thanks to the high 1+ goals in the last 30 minutes percentages at this point.
On the other hand, if Freiburg would take the lead at this point, you might want to reduce your liability, or simply green up.
75TH MINUTE ENTRY POINT
If you are looking for a late goal in this one, you want Freiburg to have the lead by the 75th minute. In this season they had it 4 times and 3 of those games produced at least one goal in the last 15 minutes. Augsburg had only 3 matches in this situation, but all of them have seen a late goal.
AUGSBURG-FREIBURG BETTING - SUMMARY
If you’re looking for an amazing FHG O 0.5 spot today, probably this is the best match. Trades from the second half are slightly weaker, but with a late Freiburg lead you can look for a goal in the last 15 minutes or so.