FOOTBALL TRADING IDEAS
Goalstatistics Trading Ideas – Introduction
In this article, we try to give you football trading ideas both prematch and in-play on a few games to help you to find the best betting spots. Compared to our trading plans, these are shorter, easy to digest articles, focusing on the sweetest spots in certain matches.
As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in-play, we always advise you to watch the match live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
In our football stats we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football stats, please click here. If you are new to Goalstatistics, we strongly advise you to do so.
TSV 1860 MUNICH – MSV DUISBURG
Over X+1.5 Goals If Home Team Have The Lead At The 60th Minute
The 3. Liga in Germany just restarted, so we don’t know too much about the form of the teams. What we know is that the end-game of this league will be amazing. Currently, there is only 5 points difference between the 1st and 11th place.
In this game, we will target a low risk-high reward entry point. If the home side have the lead around the 60th minute, we can expect two or more goals in the last half an hour. Munich had the lead at home in this spot 7 times this season, and 57% of those games have produced at least two more goals. On the other hand, Duisburg was losing 5 times away from home, and we have seen at least two more goals 4 times. These percentages are really, really high if you consider the league average is just 33%.
When you look at the home/away scored stats, it’s clear that you can expect goals from both of these teams in this spot. Also, don’t forget that odds on over 2.5 goals is okay pre-match, so probably you’ll get a really good price for two more goals at this spot too.
BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH – UNION BERLIN
Over X+1.5 Goals If Home Team Lead At Halftime
In short: none of the teams are in great shape, and both teams need points here. ‘Gladbach is still fighting for the last Champions League spot but won only once since the re-start. On the other hand, Union fights against relegation. Although they are still 4 points away from the promotion play-offs, they’ve scored only 1 goal since the restart, while conceding 7.
In this fixture, a halftime home lead is very likely. In that case, Union will need to take more risk, which could lead to goals. Both teams had 5 games where the home team had the lead at halftime, and 80% of the time these matches produced at least two more goals by the final whistle.
What’s more interesting, both teams are capable to score and concede, so this one can go wild in the second half.
FC ENERGETIK-BGU MINSK – FC VITEBSK
First Half Over 0.5 Goals
This match is from the 11th round of the Belarus Premier League. The home side is in great form, winning 4 straight games, while Vitebsk’s last win dated back to April.
From a statistical point of view, this is a perfect fixture for halftime over 0.5 goals. In the past calendar year, Energetik had 8 games at home where the score was 0-0 in the 20th minute, 6 of those went over 0.5 FHG. Vitebsk’s away games are fairly similar: they had 11 matches like this, and 73% of those went over before the break.
These teams had two meetings in the last season, both of those games went over 0.5 goals before the halftime, and the goals were scored after the 20th minute.
Luckily, the stats are looking good for this season too, so make sure you watch this game and jump on if the opportunity arises. If you can see an open game, and the odds are high enough, you can enter even earlier than the 20th minute.
We’ve found a few good spots where we could enter the markets, but some of these falls into the low risk / high reward category. Also, German 3. Liga has just re-started, so make sure you enter only if you can see an open game.