FOOTBALL TRADING IDEAS
Goalstatistics Trading Ideas – Introduction
In this article, we try to give you football trading ideas both prematch and in-play on a few games to help you to find the best betting spots. Compared to our trading plans, these are shorter, easy to digest articles, focusing on the sweetest spots in certain matches.
As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in-play, we always advise you to watch the match live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
In our football stats we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football stats, please click here. If you are new to Goalstatistics, we strongly advise you to do so.
SC FREIBURG – BAYER LEVERKUSEN
Lay The Draw
We’ve had two winners on Freiburg’s last game when they’ve traveled to Frankfurt. That was a crazy match, and there is a chance this one goes wild too.
Freiburg couldn’t win a single match since the re-start, last time they blew a 3-1 lead away from home. Leverkusen had a really strong start, scoring 7 goals against Werder and ‘Gladbach, both away from home. Then they’ve played against Wolfsburg, and surprisingly collapsed with a 1-4 home loss.
When you take a look at the table, you can see that draw won’t be enough for these teams. Leverkusen is still fighting for a Champions League spot, while Freiburg is just 4 points away from the 6th, Europa League place.
Not only that, but the stats also suggest this is a good lay the draw option. Freiburg had 7 home games that were a draw in the 60th minute, and 86% of them have seen at least one more goal. On the other hand, Leverkusen is 5/4 in this spot away from home.
What’s even better is that only one of Freiburg’s 7 home games produced a goal by the 75th minute, so you can also drip lay here.
If you decide to enter this trade, make sure you exit quickly after a goal scored. Chances are, that we’ll see two or more in this spot is fairly high.
VYSOČINA JIHLAVA – VARNSDORF
Late Goal, If Home Team Is Leading
This is far away from the sexiest match this afternoon, but there are not too many games in this time slot, so liquidity should be acceptable.
Both teams have lost their first game after the re-start, and these two matches made the fight for the 2nd-3rd place really tough. Jihlava lost to Dukla Prague, who are now only 1 point away from them, just as Hradec Kralove, who have beaten Varnsdorf.
All in all, this is a must-win match for Jihlava, while Varnsdorf also have something to fight for (they are just 5 points away from the relegation zone).
Given the fact that Jihlava is a strong favorite here, we can definitely expect them to have the lead by the 75th minute. If they do so, you can expect one more goal here, and it should come from the home side. Jihlava had the lead 8 times this season at this point of their home games, and 75% of the time we have seen one more goal. On the other hand, Varnsdorf were losing 6 times at this stage of the game, and 5 of those produced at least one more goal by the final whistle. If there was a goal in these games, the home team always scored. Based on this if you want you can bet on over x.5 goals, or take the next scoreline on the CS market, where Jihlava scores exactly one (e.g. if the score is 1-0, take 2-0 correct score).
Last, but not least take a look at the leverage stats. Ideally, we want a narrow home lead, but when it comes to low leverage, both teams are above the league average.
We haven’t seen such a long card on a Friday for a while. We’ll have plenty of games to trade, so make sure you’re selective with your entries. These two spots are looking really strong, so keep an eye on these games.