FOOTBALL TRADING IDEAS
28/06/2020
Goalstatistics Trading Ideas – Introduction
In this article, we try to give you football trading ideas both prematch and in-play on a few games to help you to find the best betting spots. Compared to our trading plans, these are shorter, easy to digest articles, focusing on the sweetest spots in certain matches.
As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in-play, we always advise you to watch the match live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
In our football stats we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football stats, please click here. If you are new to Goalstatistics, we strongly advise you to do so.
12:00 BRISTOL CITY – SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY (England, Championship)
Over x+0.5 If Sheffield Is Leading At The 75th Minute
It’s difficult to say this will be the most exciting game of the day, but it holds a strong entry point. Bristol is at the 12th place, while Sheffield sits on the 15th. Bristol is only 5 points away from the last playoff spot, so motivation isn’t in question for them.
It’s a bit weird, as Bristol is definitely fighting for that playoff spot, but they were losing at home in the 75th minute 8 times this year. Good for us, 8/8 of those games have seen a goal by the final whistle. Sheffield was leading away from home in the 75th minute 8 times this season, 63% of those matches finished with over x+0.5 goals.
Bristol can’t really lose this one at home, so if they are losing (especially if it’s a close contest), they will open up and there is a good chance for a late goal. The only red flag in this one is the fact that Sheffield has scored only one goal in this spot, so if you enter, make sure Bristol is pushing hard.
16:00 VILLARREAL-VALENCIA (Spain, Primera Division)
Over x+1.5 Goals, If Villarreal Is Leading At Halftime
This is a really important match, as both are fighting for Europa League spots, and also, if Villarreal could win, they could get closer to Sevilla for a Champions League spot. Looking at the forms, Villarreal is unbeaten since the restart, winning three times. Valencia collected only 4 points, that’s why they are only in the 8th spot now.
This one is representing a great option if you want to bet on at least two goals in the second half. Both teams had 7 matches in this spot, 71% and 57% of those have gone over the x+1.5 line. What’s even better, both teams are above the league average in terms of early goals in this spot. Last, but not least, we really like the away team’s goal-scoring tendency, so you can also get yourself insurance on the correct score market.
18:30 NUMANCIA-OVIEDO (Spain, Segunda Division)
Lay The Draw In The 60th Minute
It’s always difficult to pull the trigger on goals in the Spanish Segunda, but this time we have valid reasons to do so. This is a match between the 19th and the 17th placed teams, with only 3 points separating the sides. As the 19th placed team will end up a division lower, this is a really important game for both sides. Also, it is clear that the draw won’t help any of the teams.
The recent performance of the teams couldn’t be more different. Numancia has lost 7 in a row and their last win is dated back to the 18th of January. Oviedo is one of the winners of the break, as they are unbeaten since the restart, winning once and drawing three times.
Statistically, these teams are among the bests when it comes to lay the draw in the Spanish Segunda. Numancia had 10 home games this season drawing in the 60th minute and 8 of those have seen at least one more goal by the final whistle. Lay the draw strategy was winner 5 out of 6 away games of Oviedo, that’s a healthy 83%.
All in all, the 3 recent draws for Oviedo is a red flag, but we believe this is a game where both teams could take some risks. The 3 points are vital in this one and it can make or break the season of these two. Additionally, if this will be a draw around the 60th minute, most probably you’ll be able to lay the draw at a very low price.
SUMMARY
As per usual, there are plenty of options out there, these are just three good examples to utilize our stats with some additional information on the team’s motivation, etc. Make sure you watch the games (where possible) and don’t be afraid to skip if you can’t see on the pitch what you expect.
