FOOTBALL TRADING IDEAS
Goalstatistics Trading Ideas – Introduction
In this article, we try to give you football trading ideas both prematch and in-play on a few games to help you to find the best betting spots. Compared to our trading plans, these are shorter, easy to digest articles, focusing on the sweetest spots in certain matches.
As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in-play, we always advise you to watch the match live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
In our football stats we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football stats, please click here. If you are new to Goalstatistics, we strongly advise you to do so.
14:30 ERZGEBIRGE AUE – HANNOVER 96 (Germany, Bundesliga 2)
HT Over 0.5 If The Score Is 0-0 In The 20th Minute
There are only 2 rounds left from the Bundesliga 2, and make it clear right now: these teams have nothing to play for.
Aue is 8 points clear from the relegation zone, while Hannover is 9 points behind Hamburg, for the promotional play-off spot. On the other hand, the form of these teams is opposing. While Aue lost 4 out of their last 5, Hannover won 3 times.
Looking at the stats, these teams are more than capable to score/concede when the score is 0-0 in the 20th minute. Aue had 9 games like this, 5 of those went over 0.5 by the halftime. This is not too strong, but still above the league average. The away side had 10 games in this situation, 7 of those have seen a goal by the break.
In our opinion, there are two scenarios for this game. As there is nothing to play for, it can be fairly open – but it’s possible that the teams won’t push that hard. If it’s open, this is a viable option, especially when you look at the H2H or recent games of these two.
All in all, you have a strong HT Over 0.5 goals entry point here, but please make sure you follow this one and pull the trigger only if you see an open game.
14:30 FC HEIDENHEIM – HAMBURGER SV (Germany, Bundesliga 2)
Over x+0.5 If The Away Team Is Leading In The 75th Minute
So, another clash from Bundesliga 2, but this time the stakes are higher. Heidenheim and Hamburg are sitting in the 4th and 3rd place, and only 2 points separate the sides. Don’t forget, the team who finishes in the 3rd place can take part in the promotional play-offs.
The teams are in similar form, winning 2, drawing 2 and losing 1 out of their last 5 matches. To be fair, Hamburg can be more disappointed with their results, as they’ve failed to beat Osnabruck and Kiel playing at home, while they had the lead in both of these matches.
We have already mentioned how important is this game. If Hamburg would have the lead this late in the game, Heidenheim will go all-in and push hard in the last 15-20 minutes. They are great in this spot, as they were losing at home 4 times this season and 3 of those matches have produced at least 1 more goal. On the other hand, Hamburg is the king of late goals, as they had the lead 6 times this season away from home and 100% of those have seen at least 1 more goal by the final whistle.
18:30 VALENCIA – OSASUNA (Spain, La Liga)
Over 1.5 Goals If It’s 0-0 At Halftime
If you’re following us on Twitter, we had a shout last week in a similar spot on the Valencia-Levante match. The score was 0-0 at HT and we placed a bet on over 1.5 goals with insurance on 1-0. It was fairly easy to manage, but the timing of the goals was not the best for our trade.
Valencia had a tough re-start, as they’ve blown 2 points at home against a shorthanded Levante, and then lost 3-0 to Real Madrid. Osasuna earned a draw against Sociedad, then lost 5-0 to Atlético.
Valencia is a real slow-starter, as they had 8 games this season where the score was 0-0 at the break. They are more productive in the second half, as 7 of these matches went over 1.5, outscoring the opponent 12-5. Osasuna had fewer games in this spot (only 5), but 60% of those have seen at least two more goals by the final whistle.
In this one, you can buy insurance too, covering 1-0 at the correct score market. Valencia scored 8/8 times in this spot, so logic says it’s a good option.
As more and more leagues are returning, we have a really long card this Sunday. When we were working on our shortlist, we made a note on 60-70 spots. It’s really wide, and probably the majority will fail to make the final cut, but it indicates we’ll have a decent Sunday. As per usual, make sure you watch the games live, and skip a trade if you are unhappy with what you see from the teams. There are plenty of options…