FOOTBALL TRADING IDEAS
Goalstatistics Trading Ideas – Introduction
In this article, we try to give you football trading ideas both prematch and in-play on a few games to help you to find the best betting spots. Compared to our trading plans, these are shorter, easy to digest articles, focusing on the sweetest spots in certain matches.
As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in-play, we always advise you to watch the match live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
In our football stats we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football stats, please click here. If you are new to Goalstatistics, we strongly advise you to do so.
14:30 HERTHA BERLIN – EINTRACHT FRANKFURT (Germany Bundesliga 1)
Over x+1.5 Goals At Halftime Or The 60th Minute If Away Team Has The Lead
There are only 4 rounds left from the Bundesliga and these teams are pretty much in the safe zone. Frankfurt is 7 points away from the relegation play-offs, while Hertha is 10 points clear.
Looking at the recent forms, Dortmund just ended a 6 games unbeaten streak of Hertha last week. The away side managed to lose to Mainz at home, after two straight wins. They also had a match midweek, against Bayern in the Cup, where they’ve lost 2-1.
We have mixed feelings about this trade. If Frankfurt has the lead at halftime or around the 60th minute, you can go for two more goals in the match. Odds are definitely a question mark here, as the market is expecting over, and an away lead could worsen it.
Anyway, Hertha was losing at halftime 7 times this season (at home) and 71% of those games went over x+1.5. Frankfurt had the lead at this point only 3 times this season away from home, but all of those games have seen at least two more goals.
If you add that Hertha is racking up goals in the second half since the restart, we have a strong entry here. If you take a look at the 60th-minute stats, you can realize you can take the wait and see approach at the beginning of the second half.
All in all, if Frankfurt has the lead, you can expect goals in this one. If odds are not great (and there is a chance it won’t), just skip this one.
18:00 DINAMO MINSK – SLAVIA MOZYR (Belarus Vysshaya Liga)
Lay The Draw Around The 60th Minute
This is probably the strongest lay the draw option this week, although we have a huge home favorite, which will make things a bit tricky.
Looking at the table, teams are in the middle of the pack, Dinamo is the 9th, Mozyr is the 10th. Their form is also somewhat similar, Minsk managed to win only 2 games from their last 5, while Slavia won only once in the same period.
In the past calendar year, Minsk had 3 home games with a draw at this stage, all of them produced at least one more goal. On the other hand, the away side had 7 games with a draw at the 60th minute, and 6 of those have seen at least one more goal.
What’s even better, these teams had 5 games this season (combined) in this spot, and the LTD always ended up with a green screen.
As we’ve said earlier, the home team is a big favorite here, so maybe you want to check the 2+ goals stats in this one too. That’s another strong entry, especially if the odds on the draw will be too high to lay.
There are plenty of games today, but we felt somewhat difficult to find good spots. There are a few games, where the stats look great, but there are other reasons to skip (motivation, injuries, etc.). As per usual, if you trade a match, make sure you watch them, and only enter if you can see what you want to see from the teams.