FOOTBALL TRADING IDEAS
Goalstatistics Trading Ideas – Introduction
In this article, we try to give you football trading ideas both prematch and in-play on a few games to help you to find the best betting spots. Compared to our trading plans, these are shorter, easy to digest articles, focusing on the sweetest spots in certain matches.
As we can’t predict how the game and the market will look like in-play, we always advise you to watch the match live and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
In our football stats we only take into consideration stats from home games for the home team and from away games for the away team.
If you would like to learn more about how to understand our football stats, please click here. If you are new to Goalstatistics, we strongly advise you to do so.
17:00 FK JABLONEC – KARVINÁ (Czech Republic – Czech Liga)
Over X+0.5 Goals At The 75th Minute If Home Team Has The Lead (With Low Leverage)
This is the second-to-last round in the Czech 1st Division, and Jablonec can secure their spot in the Championship group with a win. Motivation is questionable on the away side, as Karviná will end up in the relegation group regardless of their results in the last two rounds.
The form of the home side is acceptable, as they won against Teplice and Zlín since the restart, while lost to Slavia and Liberec. The loss against Slavia was rather painful, as the leader of the league scored 5 without an answer. Karviná managed to collect 2 points (two 0-0 draws) since the restart, while they’ve managed to score only 1 goal.
To be fair, we are not 100% convinced about this trade based on the forms, but statistically, this is one of the strongest entry points of the day. There is a good chance that the home favorite will take the lead by this point in the game. Luckily, both teams produced a decent sample size in this situation. Jablonec had the lead 9 times this season at home in the 75th minute, and 78% of those have seen at least one more goal by the final whistle. On the other hand, Karviná was losing 8 times away from home in the 75th minute, and 6 of those matches have produced at least one more goal.
Looking at the secondary stats, we’ll only enter this game with a home lead of at least two goals, so in a low leverage situation. Just look at the stats, these teams are killing it when it comes to garbage time, while high leverage tendencies of Jablonec are a bit worrying.
All in all, if there is enough action on the pitch, you can jump on over x+0.5 (e.g. over 1.5 if the score is 1-0), as statistically, this is one of the best entry points of the day.
17:30 WOLFSBERGER AC – TSV HARTBERG (Austria – Bundesliga)
Over X+1.5 Goals At 60th Minute If Home Team Has The Lead
This one is a low-risk, high reward trade option, and you can also opt-in for very logical insurance on the correct score market.
Wolfsberger is unbeaten since the re-start, as first, they’ve managed to beat Sturm away from home, then played 3-3 in a crazy game against LASK. Hartberg went for an away win at Linz in the re-opener and then lost 6-0 at home to Salzburg.
In this one, we’ll target at least two goals after the 60th minute (over x+1.5 means over 2.5 goals if the score is 1-0), if Wolfsberger is leading. The reasons are simple, first of all: there is a really good chance that you can enter this trade, as the home side is a huge favorite. Secondly, Wolfsberger had 5 games at home leading at this point of the match, 4 of those produced at least two more goals by the end. Unfortunately, the only exception came against Hartberg, where they’ve scored only 1 in the last half hour in a 3-0 home victory (although all three goals came in the second half). Hartberg had 6 games away from home, losing at this point and 4 of those have seen at least 2 more goals.
What’s even better, you can take insurance on the CS market. Just take a look at how often Wolfsberger scored in this spot, and how often Hartberg managed to concede.
18:00 SG SONNENHOF GROSSASPACH – PREUSSEN MUNSTER (Germany Liga 3)
First Half Over 0.5 Goals If It’s 0-0 At The 20th Minute
We were really hesitant with our first half over call for this Wednesday. There are a few great options, but this could be a sneaky play (including a punt on half time away lead).
If you look at the results of these teams since the restart, probably you couldn’t tell they are both in the relegation zone. Despite the fact they are there (and Grossaspach probably will stay there…), the home side collected 4, the away side collected 6 points in just 3 games. Interestingly, the three games of Münster produced 14 goals!
Why do we expect the first-half goal here? Grossaspach had 11 games at home where the score was 0-0 in the 20th minute, 10 of them went over 0.5 before the halftime. On the other hand, Münster sits a little bit below the league average with 50% in 8 games.
We said it’s a sneaky play, right? Münster is the underdog here, and the odds on them to win the first half is around 3.40 already. Now, the thing in that 11 home matches where the score was 0-0 in the 20th minute, Grossaspach conceded 10 times by the halftime (and scoring only twice). Their goal difference at home between the 21st minute and the halftime is a shocking 2-18. Münster is not too bad from this aspect away from home, scoring 50% of the time, while conceding only in 13%.
We think it’s a good idea to split your stake and jump on over 0.5 FHG and away lead at halftime in this one (go for 80-20 or so). If you take the HT Away, don’t forget to green up they take the lead.
Guys, if you’ve taken a look at midweek’s fixtures, you can see that most probably we’ll have a few decent entries. Wednesday options are crazy, these games are only the tip of the iceberg. As always, make sure you follow, if possible watch these games. If you don’t like what you see, just skip – there are many options out there these days.