Lay The Draw Trading Strategy

What Is Lay the Draw?

As we said in the introduction, lay the draw is one of the most known trading strategy. In case you haven’t heard about it, we explain it now. First, and foremost this can be used only on betting exchanges, like Betfair, Betdaq, Smarkets or Matchbook.

The LTD strategy is favored by many traders, especially beginners due to it’s simplicity. Basically you enter a match before kick-off, or when the score is draw at any point of the match with the expectation of one more goal. Your first bet will be a lay on the draw,  which means you bet against the draw. When a goal is scored, the odds of draw will increase, so you place a second bet to back the draw. By doing so,  you generated healthy profit. Due to the nature of this trading strategy the later the goal comes, the more significant profit you can take from lay the draw.

Let’s See Two Examples

You lay the draw in the 60th minute at odds of 2.20 with 100 €.

If the favorite scored in the 65th minute, the odds of draw will jump to 5.00. You back it with 44 €, so no matter how the match ends, you will realize around 50 € profit.
If a favorite scored later, e.g in the 85th minute, the odds of draw jump to 14.00. You back it with 15 €, so no matter how the match ends, you will realize 80 € profit.
Sounds good, right? – It does, but it’s not that simple. Let’s talk about the potential entry points of lay the draw strategy!

Lay The Draw Before the Kick-Off

This is something we wouldn’t recommend usually. The main disadvantage of this entry point is that you will usually lay at high odds, at least 3.30, often a lot higher. The higher the odds you lay, the smaller profit you can realize when someone scores. If you lay the draw before kick-off, there are certain scenarios, where you’ll find yourself in a very awkward spot. For example, if the underdog scored early the odds for the draw won’t increase, but shorten! Also, sometimes the favorite score too early, which will hurt your potential profit too.

Lay The Draw At Halftime

This entry point is a lot more reasonable, but you still lay at higher odds, definitely above 2.40. Additionally, there is only 45 minutes  left to play, which is a significant factor in this spot.

To highlight the importance of this, we made quick research in our database, where we considered matches that have played after the 1st of July 2018. In the examples, we focused on 0-0 draws, as you might have heard many times someone saying: this game can’t finish with 0-0.

We analyzed more than 100000 league matches, and about 8% of them ended with 0-0. There were more than 32000 games where the score was 0-0 at halftime, 25.5% of these ended with 0-0. Due to this, an average lay the draw bet will win 74.5% of the time. This also means if the score is 0-0 at halftime, the probability of a goalless draw is more than three times higher, than it was prematch!

Here Is a Shocking Example From 2018/2019

The Dutch Eredivisie has become famous about its high scoring games, so we picked a team which plays 0-0 close to the average. This team was PEC Zwolle, which played 22 games at home with a goal average of 3.91, and only 9% of their games ended with 0-0 (2 matches). It’s interesting to see that the remaining 20 games all had at least one goal in the first half. In those two instances, where the HT score was 0-0, the match also ended with 0-0.

Let’s Take a Look At The Opposite Of The Spectrum

At the same time, Japanese J1 League side, Tokyo FC played very low scoring games at home, with an average of 2.21 goals. This team also played 0-0 just as often as the average team in our database, 8.3% of the time (2/24). Interesting fact, that the scoreboard showed 0-0 16 times at halftime, but we have seen at least one goal in 14 instances.

Now, ask yourself where would you apply the Lay the Draw trading strategy? If you picked the second example, you’re right. Not only because you can win more often, but you can also win a lot more, as the market expects more goals from Zwolle’s home games than Tokyo’s ones.

Thanks to the Goalstatistics Daily Football Stats, these situational statistics are delivered to you every single day, for every single match!

Lay The Draw In The 60th Minute

As the game goes on, and the score is still a draw, it’s odds will significantly decrease. Around the 60th minute, most of the times it will be between 1.80-2.30, depending on market expectations. Overall we can say that the principles from the halftime entry point still apply here, but your bet’s risk-reward ratio will be better.

At this stage of the game it's worth we taking into consideration non-goalless (e.g. 1-1, etc.) draws too. This is a slightly different aspect of the Lay the Draw betting strategy, but the majority of the games won’t be 0-0 at this stage. All in all, we can say in general, if the score is a draw in the 60th minute, 65% of the time we have seen at least one more goal.

What logic would say, the more goals you can see in a league, the more likely you can see a goal in the last 30 minutes. In general, this statement is true, but as we have seen earlier, it’s not that simple.

Where Would You Apply The Lay The Draw Strategy From The Examples Below?

• Netherlands Eredivisie (League average goals: 3.4) / Heerenveen-Groningen (2018)
• Brazil Serie A (League average goals: 2.17) / Vasco Da Gama-Flamengo (2018)

Heerenveen had 10 games at home where the score was a draw in the 60th minute, but there was at least one more goal only 5 times (50%). Groningen had 9 away games like this, and only 4 of them produced at least one more goal (44%).

Vasco had 10 games at home where the score was a draw in the 60th minute, and 8 times we have seen at least one more goal (80%).  Flamengo also had 10 games away in this situation, and 7 of those produced at least one more goal (70%).

Imagine the odds you get on the draw for the Brazilian game and how bigger the odds increase can you expect when they score!

The fact is, without significant research, you won’t be able to find this valuable data. Luckily, the Goalstatistics Daily Football Stats delivers this every single day for more than 120 leagues and more than 30 000 matches every single year to use it to prepare a successful lay the draw entry!

Goalstatistics Daily Football Data Sheets & Lay the draw

In the previous examples, we analyzed „fictional” games, so it’s time to show how Goalstatistics Daily Football Stats work in practice.

On the 9th of September 2024, we had less matches than usual due to an international break, but it doesn't mean we can't find good prospects! On the main page, we set the filters as the screenshot below. With the first condition we've been searching for matchups with two teams whose games tend to see at least one more goal 70% of the time, if the score is draw in the 60th Minute. The second condition was set to remove matches with low sample size.

Overall, the number of available games is quite limited, thanks to the lower number of matches in this period, plus the strict condition we set. 

These Are The Games We Have To Consider

• Nueva Chicago-Aldosivi (ARG2)
• Guemes-Deportivo Maipu (ARG2)
• Chaco For Ever-Deportivo Madryn (ARG2)
• Fujieda-Tochigi (JPN2)
• Pastoreo - 12 de Junio VH (PAR2)
• Deportivo Coopsol - Deportivo Llacuabamba (PER2)

The matches from the South American second divisions sometimes struggle with liquidity, but of course it's always a good idea to keep an eye on them. Thanks to the early start of the Japanese match, liquidity wasn't an issue there!

Look at the screenshot above! The average match of the J2 League this season seen at least one more goal 61% of the time if the score wa a draw in the 60th Minute. Both Fujieda and Tochigi are well above the league average with 75% and 80% in 8 and 5 matches. It's also visible that both teams are capable to score and concede in this situation, which is also a plus. It has confirmed this match is a strong candidate, so we can apply the lay the draw strategy. And the result?

Anyway, if you look at our shortlist, we had the opportunity to apply the LTD strategy on 2 more matches. After drawing in the 60th minute, Nueva Chicago scored a late goal to win the match. The Peruvian clash was also 1-1 in the 60th Minute, providing a good opportunity. The home side scored in the 69th minute to break the draw and deliver nice profits.

Let’s Create a More Advanced Lay The Draw Trading Plan

If you take a deeper look at our stats, you can see the Any scored between 61-75th Minute category. This shows how often did these teams scored or conceded a goal between the 61th and 75th Minute. As a good rule of thumb, the higher the number is, the faster you want to get your bet matched.

Taking into consideration the stat above and the pace of the match you can decide between two options:

1. If the game has produced a lot of action / the stat shows an early goal is likely, you put in your full stake in the 61st minute.
2. When the game is slower / the stat doesn't indicate an early goal you can split your stake. Lay the draw with 50-60% in the 61st minute, and the remaining around the 75th minute.

If you decide to take the second option, you will win a lot more with a late goal, but if a goal comes early, you will win less. The more experienced you become, the easier decisions you will make in these situations! Last, but not least, on the 75th Minute – In-Play tab you can also check how these teams perform in the last 15 minutes of a game when the score is a draw. Apparently lay the draw is a viable option, even this late into the match!